Election 2019 - The rebirth of Northern Patriotism

On several occasions during the election campaign I started drafting articles, but the speed of events simply made it impossible to keep up. Now, with dust settling on such a momentous realignment of British Politics, let’s take stock...

A party for the Labourers?

Lynton Crosby’s most notable electoral strategy is the ‘wedge’, wherein a divisive issue is brought up by the right of centre party to split the opposition party (usually left of centre) on the matter. This enables the former to present a united, albeit narrow-minded, perspective and attract support. But in 2019, with Brexit, antisemitism, and renationalisation, Labour wedged themselves.

This is perhaps an overly simplistic model to create but it is remarkably applicable. Jeremy Corbyn has marked himself out as a chairman, not an autocrat - a man who talks to people to decide his opinions or formulate policy. It is what led to such ‘dithering’ - as the Tories put it - on Brexit, and has been used to justify his meetings with the IRA and Hamas. It is, perhaps coincidentally, in sharp contrast to Tony Blair’s cabinet which was marginalised during his premiership, and partially led to the resignations of Robin Cook and Claire Short over Iraq. Of course, Clement Attlee was more a chair than a leader, and many of his achievements are widely lauded by both the left and much of the right. Yet, I don’t believe that amidst the 24 hour News Cycle, in the era of social media, that Attlee would have been anywhere near as successful.

The Burkean model suggests that MPs should act in their constituencies best interests, even if it means going against their wishes. It is this idea which, put against the clear view of 17.4 million people, undermines our parliamentary democracy almost as much as it did the Labour Party. What’s remarkable is how few incumbent Labour MPs openly had an opinion on the issue, even if the opinion was ‘I will support leaving the EU providing your worker’s rights and environmental regulations are protected, as are our public services.’ Or ‘I will support Remaining in the EU regardless as I don’t believe that any negotiated deal is better than our current one inside the EU’. Maybe this was made clear, perhaps it was too nuanced for the electorate, maybe the ‘establishment media’ chose to ignore it. Perhaps I am using hindsight to suggest a policy which would have seen Labour openly at loggerheads with each other, further fuelling the ‘dither and delay’ metaphor. It’s probably a mixture. Either way, looking at the data, it seems as though Labour’s Brexit policy largely won Liberal Democrat votes they didn’t need and lost them their heartlands.

The UK’s electoral map now looks remarkably similar to the US’. Post Obama Republican’s are strongest in deindustrialised and rural areas, much like the Conservatives, whilst Labour now appears to represent largely metropolitan, urban communities (though still with some exceptions). With partisan alignment and class divides seemingly melting away, the question for Labour is whether to try to win these former heartlands back or try to take Conservative  urban areas such as in the Home Counties or in my own constituency of Solihull, which has seen Labour now finish second to the Tories 2 elections in a row, despite it being held by the Lib Dems until 2015. What seems almost certain though, is that Labour won’t be able to gain a majority government without strangling electoral control of Scotland off the SNP. This appears a difficult task with Nicola Sturgeon still rebutting calls for an unauthorised second independence referendum (vis a vis Catalonia), and the two parties remaining ideologically very similar. 

Continuity, culls and change...

The Tories knew this, which is perhaps why their simple slogans, and threadbare manifesto, went so far. There are many people (my family included) who wonder why Boris’ controversies don’t stick. I personally think it’s down to morality. Jeremy Corbyn portrays himself as a sincere, honest man and as such is judged by those standards based upon his 3 decades of principled parliamentary contributions. Boris Johnson built his parliamentary career after being fired from the Times for lying. Upon assuming the highest office in the land, people were well aware of his affairs, Darius Guppy, and his open lust for power. Not to mention, of course, his homophobic and racist remarks in his columns. It is difficult to find any new accusations that don’t contradict all of the above. People who hate Boris have done so for a long time, some find him comical but an idiot, whilst others are in awe at his persona and his ability to attract supporters from across the country. A pre-populism populist one might say...

This election was always the Conservatives’ to lose and despite 9 years of highly contentious government, during which time the party has been in open civil war and many long standing members have either defected or been expelled (Allen, Stewart, Grieve, Clarke, Soames, Hammond etc.) defeat never looked likely. There was also a momentous number of incumbent Tories who stood down having represented the anti-Boris wing of the party. Not all are one-nation Conservatives but object to Boris’ Brexit policy and his style of governance.

Has he ducked scrutiny during this campaign? Undoubtedly. Are his policies on Police numbers, NHS nurses and school funding factually correct? No. Does all of this matter to the electorate in what appears to be a burgeoning post-truth era? Perhaps not. After all, his own Cabinet Minister, and one time snake, Michael Gove remarked in 2016 that people had had enough of experts.

Smaller party summations...

The SNP I’m sure will be both delighted and frustrated, knowing that they will be marginalised for another 5 years at Westminster. The Lib Dem’s who were among the first to back this early election, will be in despair, seats lost, leader ousted, and a poor campaign which isolated even the most ardent of Remainers who felt that they were democrats first, liberals second, and so on. Plaid Cymru will be self-assured having unexpectedly held on to all of their seats whilst the Brexit Party can’t complain too seriously, having admitted they were a spoiler party by standing aside candidates in Tory constituencies. Northern Ireland’s remain alliance paid off and devolution talks are set to restart as the DUP are now in retreat from their height of influence in 2017. As for the Green Party, they can take comfort from the fact that every other party has acknowledged the climate crisis and has made stronger environmental policies, but once again be disappointed that progressivism has lost out, in the election which they knew would cause more harm to their cause than good.

Government direction...

So what now? Perhaps an unhinged Johnson, no longer constrained by a hung parliament, can embrace the ERG, the Cornerstone group and restore the New Right to the party. This is at least reflected in the cabinet appointments of Jacob Rees-Mogg and Priti Patel among others. Or will he instead move to the centre, aware that his new voter demographic has a far greater reliance on public services? Both pose challenges. It was the national pride following the Falklands War, along with the ‘Alliance’s’ threat to Labour which won it for Thatcher in 1983, rather than policy initiatives. Meanwhile, the recently repainted ‘red wall’ of seats, was where UKIP were strongest at their peak. Socially conservative and nativist with a strong interest in Law and Order, by focusing on just the patriotic cause of Brexit, their support is fragile. If Labour elects a new leader who connects and empathises with the working classes rather than sympathise, this alliance may quickly crumble.

Final remarks...

It is this patriotism which can be said to have defined this election. What is almost certain, is that the Conservative Party (somewhat ironically) has definitely changed, and that the opposition are playing catch-up. In 1935, it took a Second World War to bring Labour back to power, whilst 1983 was the nadir of 18 years of opposition led by the aforementioned Michael Foot. With Labour dependent on Trade Unions for funding, I don’t see the party being reimagined and cultivated in the same way the Tories have been under Boris. Compromise is clearly needed. Whoever the new leader is perhaps won’t even be expected to target entering Downing Street in the next election, such is the scale of the task ahead.  But if they learn nothing else, they should consider generations of tribal loyalties towards them now lying dead in a ditch. And the -arguably tribal in nature - nationalism of Northern England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland is now bubbling at the surface like never before seen in Westminster. The Conservatives are the ones tapping into it now, the question is whether it can be won back.